What will soar and fail in tech and business in 2015

fortune-magazine-200From Fortune:

“No one does predictions like Mark Anderson, whose forecasts about the intersection of the economy and technology are closely followed in Silicon Valley. He has a global view of what’s the next big thing and place along an eye for hot products and countries that about to take a dive. Anderson is head of Strategic News Service, a newsletter publisher for industry leaders and venture capitalists. It claims a readership that includes Dell CEO, Michael Dell, Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Microsoft’s Bill Gates. Recently, Mark Anderson listed his predictions for 2015 during a gathering in San Francisco. Here are his key points…”

Read more at Fortune online.

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The Sony Hack And Nortel’s Demise: Piracy Vs. Crown Jewel Theft

mark_anderson-58f105a6adbd9f49954a1796e161b994At Forbes.com Mark Anderson CEO, Strategic News Service, discusses the impact of cyber espionage on the tech industry:

“In the last few years, we’ve seen a continued exponential increase in cyber attacks, with different purposes in mind: blocking bank operations, listening to military communications, stealing customer IDs, and taking the greatest secrets held by corporations and governments – their “crown jewel” secrets. The results have been uniformly negative, and wildly different in levels of damage. ”

 
Read more at Forbes

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SNS on Peak Oil Pricing: The most important economic prediction of the decade

From our SNS Report dated Oct 2, 2014: “SNS Australia: Dancing in the Deadly Embrace”,
in Upgrades and Numbers: “Peak Pricing, Not Peak Oil”

“I’ve long said that the real price of oil – meaning, the cost of getting it out of the ground plus making a reasonable (vs. rapacious) profit – is in the $14/bbl range. With increased costs for difficulty of retrieval (deeper wells and waters) and more advanced technology, that price should be higher; perhaps it’s $45-$55 today.

“Here’s a quick look at where prices are going:

old-oil-chart

 

“While a chartist might see the end of this fall somewhere around $90/bbl, I am suggesting that we have much further to go.

“$50/bbl should do it. How long will it take? Since I think China is hitting a real set of economic blocks, I am expecting this to be sooner, rather than later; perhaps 5 years or less, rather than 10.

“And since this will change almost everything in global economics, it seems worth sharing with our members.

“I don’t think oil is ever coming back.”

AND

Crude oil prices as of January 12, 2015

crudeoil

 


Headlines for January 2015:

 

Global OilWSJ, January 12, 2015
Brent Crude Settles Below $50 for First Time in Nearly Six Years
http://www.wsj.com/articles/brent-crude-falls-below-50-in-asian-trading-1421039495

 

USA Today, January 12, 2015
Saudi prince: $100-a-barrel oil ‘never’ again
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/bartiromo/2015/01/11/bartiromo-saudi-prince-alwaleed-oil-100-barrel/21484911/

635565840189835514--Prince-ALWALEED-2“Saudi Arabia and all of the countries were caught off guard. No one anticipated it was going to happen. Anyone who says they anticipated this 50% drop (in price) is not saying the truth.

Because the minister of oil in Saudi Arabia just in July publicly said $100 is a good price for consumers and producers. And less than six months later, the price of oil collapses 50%.”

– Saudi billionaire investor prince Alwaleed bin Talal, in an interview with Maria Bartiromo.

 

Crude oil prices renew a slide that has yet to bottom
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2015/01/12/crude-oil-prices-renew-slide/21628479/

 

Stocks close lower as oil prices tumble 5%
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2015/01/12/stocks-monday/21625823/

 

How low can oil prices go? Welcome to the oil market’s old normal
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/01/12/how-low-can-oil-prices-go-welcome-to-the-oil-markets-old-normal/

 

Oil dives anew, falling 5 percent on Goldman downgrade, outages
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/12/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0KL03Y20150112

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Improved cybersecurity, health devices among predictions at Bellingham tech event

herald-logo
From the Bellingham Herald:

“Despite the problems around cybersecurity and theft, technology
continues to make strides that will lead to dramatic changes in the coming
years.

That’s one of the many takeaways from Mark Anderson in his annual top
technology and economic predictions presentation, held on Friday, Jan. 9, at
Whatcom Community College. The event was organized by the Northwest
Technology Alliance Group.”

Read the complete article.

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SNS Special Alert: Is Sony or China the real Censor?

cyber securityBy: Mark Anderson

When Dalian Wanda, China’s largest commercial real estate and entertainment firm, bought the US’ second-largest theater chain, AMC, a few years ago, I wondered what the result would be.

Already, we had started to see the effects of China’s desire to move its censorship efforts offshore and into the US film industry, with the increase in various levels of pandering to Chinese censors by US studios in an effort to get Chinese domestic distribution. Double endings, Chinese heros, Chinese settings, and even Chinese script approval, all became part of the new economics of making more money on blockbuster films.

This week, as Sony wrestled with how to manage the damage from North Korea’s hack of its networks, it waited for theater chains to ring in. According to the LA times, Regal decided not to cancel, but to delay showing The Interview, a comedy based on “taking out” Kim Jung Un.

And then AMC announced it would pull all of its US theaters out of distribution for the film. It was AFTER AMC’s announcement that Sony decided to pull not just the single Christmas day showing, but the entire distribution of the film.

Could Sony have launched the film in defiance of AMC’s pullout? I seriously doubt it.

Result: For all intents and purposes, it appears that China censored the American film offerings this season, and not Sony.

For some reason, all of the press seems to have missed this story to date.

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2015 Predictions Luncheon with Mark R. Anderson

tag2015-blog

January 9, 2015 @ 11:30 am – 1:30 pm

Whatcom Community College, Bellingham, WA

Register Here

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How do hackers gain access?

SNS INVNT/IP Board Member Richard Marshall on CNN:

 

 

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Mark Anderson to Speak on “The Benefits of Public Broadband”

connecttheworld
Connect with the World Conference on October 9 in Mount Vernon to Focus on the Benefits of Publicly Owned Broadband Infrastructure

Local and national private sector and government leaders will meet in Mount Vernon, Washington, on October 9, 2014 to discuss the benefits of publicly owned broadband infrastructure during the innovative Connect with the World Conference.
 

Get Tickets: http://mcintyrehall.org/scheduled_event.asp?sid=1303

 

Read more: http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/2110463#ixzz3AD1yTxFB

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Microsoft and the Smartphone Problem

From Seattle’s Crosscut.com:

Strategic News Service CEO Mark Anderson comments on What Microsoft’s job cuts really mean for the company.

Read the article at Crosscut.

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Neal Stephenson: It’s time to grow past ‘silly little apps’

Sci-fi author Neal Stephenson writes books about cyber punks who spend their free time in a virtual world and deliver pizzas on high-speed skateboards. In real life, though, he’s concerned about something a little more down to earth: Getting past the app.

Fellow sci-fi scribe David Brin asked Stephenson about his predictions for the next year during a session at the Future in Review technology conference in Laguna Beach on Friday. His response was equal parts hopeful and sad: “The brightest people of our generation will raise their sights a little bit from working on silly little apps and try to do something that is more momentous.”

It’s a phenomenon he feels is driven by capitalism. “The whole ecosystem of little start-ups in the Bay Area making little apps is one that is sort of tailor-made for the VC environment.”

“I have to wonder how much longer that can go.”

“If I were a capitalist that’s what I would be asking myself: Are there opportunities there in the way of doing big, ambitious things that everyone else is missing because they’re so focused on doing little start-ups?”

Brin, ever the attentive interviewer, took the bait, suggesting a kaleidoscope of high-tech solutions to global scale problems.

Stephenson was more subdued. “I’d settle for roads,” he deadpanned.

 

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